Department of Finance’s economic forecasts to take US tariffs into account
The Department of Finance will publish economic forecasts for Ireland to take account of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration in the United States.
The document will be brought to a meeting of the Cabinet and launched by Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe and Minister for Public Expenditure Jack Chambers.
The forecasts set out two scenarios: one where a trade deal is agreed between the US and European Union, and a second where there is a 10% tariff between the US and the rest of the world and 60% on China.
The document follows an analysis produced by the Department of Finance and the Economic and Social Research Institute in March showing the effect of US tariffs on the Irish economy.
It said the decline in Gross Domestic Product, a measure of the economy which includes the contribution from multinationals, could be as much as 3.2% in the event of a 10% tit-for-tat tariffs.
And it said that the forecast for the domestic economy would be 1.7% below the no tariff scenario.
It also showed corporation tax collected by Ireland would be negatively affected.
The no tariff forecast has been endorsed by the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council, which is an independent watchdog on public finances.
Under EU rules, members states have to publish a medium-term economic plan and then an annual progress report to show how it is being implemented.
The Government is also planning to publish a Medium-Term Fiscal and Structural Plan in the summer which will set out the fiscal strategy for the next five years.
Article Source – Department of Finance’s economic forecasts to take US tariffs into account – RTE