Former IMF boss predicts quick economic rebound once Covid-19 crisis is over
Former IMF deputy director general Donal Donovan said he believes it is possible for a “fairly quick rebound” once the coronavirus crisis passes and confidence returns to the Irish economy.
Mr Donavan said that this crisis is quite unlike the situation in 2008/2009, when banks went bust, the construction industry collapsed and there was huge household debt.
Now the Irish economy is strong and resilient, he stated.
He said that people are keeping their money for a rainy day but he believes that when this stops, people will want to return to shops and restaurants.
Mr Donovan said it is hard to predict how the economic decline will impact on individual households but it will mean that Ireland will have to borrow large sums of money, which will have a detrimental effect on other initiatives and projects down the road.
He also warned the IMF projections are based on the assumption that the virus will fade in the second half of next year, which he admitted is “a pretty big assumption”.
Mr Donovan said there is a risk that people will be concerned about importing goods once this crisis has passed and there will possibly be an anti-China sentiment.
He added that this could lead to economic nationalism and a longer slow down in recovery in world trade.
Donal Donovan also said there will be an enormous problem in developing countries once this crisis has passed and this is where a co-ordinated response will be needed.
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